Tim’s Picks
Home

XGBoost Predicted Odds

Last updated:

Pick 1

Player Predicted Odds (%)
Leon Draisaitl 9.01%
Ryan O'Reilly 8.25%
Zach Hyman 7.74%
Tage Thompson 7.58%
Alex Ovechkin 7.27%
Tim Stützle 7.04%
Cole Caufield 6.92%
Tyler Toffoli 6.80%
Nathan MacKinnon 6.68%
Nick Suzuki 6.46%
Lawson Crouse 6.35%
Yegor Sharangovich 6.31%
Nazem Kadri 5.65%
Fabian Zetterlund 4.97%
Alexis Lafrenière 4.86%

Pick 2

Player Predicted Odds (%)
Matt Duchene 7.13%
Jonas Brodin 6.99%
Jake Sanderson 6.64%
Josh Anderson 6.62%
Stefan Noesen 6.53%
Roope Hintz 6.07%
Ryan Hartman 5.64%
Mattias Ekholm 5.63%
Juraj Slafkovsky 5.57%
Connor Zary 5.29%
Ridly Greig 4.71%
Morgan Frost 4.71%
Mattias Janmark 4.62%
Cole Smith 4.55%
Jordan Greenway 4.55%

Pick 3

Player Predicted Odds (%)
Jonny Brodzinski 6.84%
Trent Frederic 5.52%
Curtis Lazar 5.35%
Ryan Lomberg 5.22%
Alexandre Carrier 4.55%
Brayden McNabb 4.55%
Ian Cole 4.49%
Arber Xhekaj 4.46%
Luke Hughes 4.41%
Simon Edvinsson 4.25%
Artem Zub 4.09%
Kevin Bahl 3.86%
Declan Chisholm 3.35%
Jordan Spence 3.02%
Scott Mayfield 3.02%

About Model 6

Robust boosted trees with strong regularization, trained to predict and calibrate the percentage chance of a player scoring.